Cottage POV

I’ve started writing this on the morning of the final game of the season, prefixing that sometimes I start and the world takes over and I move elsewhere and pick it up again in three days. Not unfamiliar to Fulham, summer 2023 went by with a fair amount of chaos that saw star-striker Aleksandar Mitrovic pack his bags on derby day and move to “the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.” Dominant ball-winner and foundation of Premier League safety the previous year, Joao Palhinha, was in a Munich holding cell prior to Fulham’s trip to the Etihad. 5 of Fulham’s 7 senior summer signings arrived after the season had started at Everton whilst Marco Silva himself had doubt hovering with tabloid talk of joining his Serbian striker in the Saudi Pro League. And before going onto the juice of this piece, it seems apt to talk about us having 15 senior players fit and available -including soon-to-be surplus Kevin Mbabu and Carlos Vinicius – in the pre-season opener against Brentford.

The tumultuous season preparation leaked into the season in general, with a pretty messy situation that, beyond the headline Mitrovic situation, will not be talked about by mainstream media. Needless today, Marco Silva has done terrific work comfortably guiding us to another year in the Premier League (plus a cup semi-final) and continues to show why he should be given the keys to the Cottage and be the true head of the football club.

Who will replace Luis Boa Morte?

We received the unfortunate news during the last international break of the season that Luis Boa Morte will be leaving the club for a Head Coach gig for Guinea-Bissau which leaves a gap on Marco Silva’s coaching staff. Whilst I do think the presence of Luis Boa Morte immediately assisted Marco Silva and staffs relationship with the club, it is important to note that Boa only joined Silva’s staff midway through his time at Everton so Marco has previously worked with alternative assistants.

His assistant from his time at Estoril, Sporting, Olympiacos, Hull, Watford and one season at Everton was Joao Pedro Sousa. Sousa is currently available after being dismissed in his second spell in charge at Famalicao, whilst he’s also had periods in charge at Boavista and Al-Raed since venturing on his own. Certainly a contender to rejoin the set up (dependent on his own ambitions).

The rumour mill seems to be zoning in on current Casa Pia manager Goncalo Santos. Santos was signed by Silva at Estoril in Marco’s first job in his early 30s and made captain. Goncalo Santos retired in 2021 at 34 and at 37, is a few years into his coaching career but Casa Pia is his first gig in charge. Since taking over, Santos has guided Casa Pia to 5 wins and 3 draws from his first 13 and a 9th (from 18) finish. Casa Pia were 16th, with 5 wins and 5 draws from their first 21 when he first took over. An encouraging young coach, the personal connection makes sense and there’s a likely stronger financial gains from moving to Fulham for Goncalo Santos. Either way, it’ll be interesting to see how Marco Silva’s coaching staff looks come pre-season.

Jay Stansfield is back, how much gametime will he get and where?

A tricky loan for Jay Stansfield, whilst he took personal plaudits for his work at Birmingham City (a clean sweep at their end of season awards), it was a tough campaign with the clubs’ disastrous Wayne Rooney experiment leading to relegation to League One. The first time the club have been in the third tier of English football since 1994-95.

A testing loan period did see him score 12 goals without much support, adding his 2 assists, he contributed to 28% of Birmingham City’s goals all season, their only player to score double digits. Marco Silva confirmed in one of his recent press conferences that Stansfield will return to the club and “be one of the players in our attacking line for next season.”

Notably, Jay Stansfield isn’t built like Silva’s typical no.9s (think Cenk Tosun, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Aleksandar Mitrovic, Carlos Vinicius, Rodrigo Muniz). Silva has continuously favoured that bulkier focal point to his attacks, being able to build attacks from, utilise crosses and be strong in both boxes from set pieces. Stansfield has that Jamie Vardy style about him, leaner, quick, excellent defensive work from the front and all about the finishing – how that will slot into Silva’s system will be interesting.

He has the flexibility to play right, 10 or up top, adding versatility somewhat reminiscent to Bobby Decordova-Reid (who himself is out of contract this summer). Where he’ll slot in and how many minutes he’ll play will certainly be something to watch.

How much is in the “transfer kitty?”

I both love and hate that trope from the old red tops. Looking forward each summer to that snoop that we might have £10m to spend this summer was a teenage dream. The Premier League has financially boomed since then, kicked on by the introduction of BT Sport into the TV deal and growing revenues. Fulham have been quite moderate in the transfer window since coming into the Premier League with net spend at about £50m in the two seasons so far. For reference, that’s less than Villa spent on Moussa Diaby and Bournemouth spent about £120m last summer alone without major sales.

The 23/24 season has been one for Financial Fair Play (or Profitability and Sustainability Rules) to be under the microscope with the first Premier League punishments of FFP since the scheme was introduced in 2013, whilst more awkward cases hover around Manchester City and Chelsea. Fulham however have had continuous Premier League seasons for the first time under the Khan ownership, with safety this season removing Championship financials from the three year cycle for elevated Premier League revenues. Fulham posted revenue of £182m for 22/23, that will be similar this year with a mid-table finish and even if relegated dead last can estimate safely £100m upwards for 24/25.

Whilst net spend isn’t eye popping, Fulham have spent ‘big’ in the market with around £20m spent on each of Calvin Bassey, Joao Palhinha and Alex Iwobi complimenting bargains in Bernd Leno and Andreas Pereira for sub £10m transfers. Marco Silva and staff have also done a terrific job developing internal talents with Antonee Robinson signed 4 years ago for £2m and now one of the best left backs in league and Rodrigo Muniz has become a bit of a story of Fulham’s season with a breakout run of form.

Where will that money be spent?

It piqued my interest when Marco Silva said this week that the club are targeting “three or four” positions this summer and specifically “we are going to look for two” when discussing centre backs. One can assume there will be a Tosin replacement on the right hand side and possibly eyes move towards Tim Ream’s age and contract being up at the end of the 24/25 season which will be his 10th season at the club. Both he and Tom Cairney have earned the right to go out on their own terms, I’d be all for the club extending deals until they decide that they’re done or want to move elsewhere but from a squad planning perspective, it makes sense to have eyes on the future.

The other note from this past week that caught my eye was “For next season, we have three or four target positions that we want to clearly, clearly improve.” and “When we sign players, we always think that he can be a starting XI player.” The desire to “clearly, clearly improve” and that signings are seen as players that can contribute immediately. It does explain the clubs dedication to more veteran players (those aged 26 and older), especially since promotion with Steven Benda (a depth keeper, currently 3rd choice) and Calvin Bassey outliers to that consensus since promotion.

Personally, more Bassey’s in the squad would be nice. He’s come on leaps and bounds as the season has progressed and has Tim Ream looking on from the side lines. At just 24, there feels like there’s plenty more to come from the Italian-born, British-raised, Nigerian centre half. The current Fulham squad has 14 players aged 28 or older with a further 3 turning 28 over the course of next season whilst the aforementioned Calvin Bassey, Rodrigo Muniz and Jay Stansfield set to be the only players aged 24 or younger come the first game of the season. The squad needs to get younger and more competitive with potential sellable assets to boot.

If I had to hazard a guess, obviously centre back is one of the four positions Silva would like the strengthen. I’d add centre forward; Rodrigo Muniz has done a decent job steadying the ship and is certainly growing as a player but he’s not earned that Harry Kane/Aleksandar Mitrovic level of “he’s the man.” Strength in depth is key, and whilst it was a strong purple patch from Muniz, I’m not comfortable enough with him as the guy, nor just Raul Jimenez behind him. Production from the wings this season has been pretty poor this year so I’d that as well, Willian took a step below his level last year. Alex Iwobi has had an up and down year, somewhat understandable with his late arrival in a team still settling from that crazy pre-season. Bobby Decordova-Reid was what we know from Bobby, got amongst the goals, done a job in some games, then other games you wonder how he’s still playing Premier League football; what will the resolution of his contract expiring this summer be? Harry Wilson has similarly has inconsistent periods and Adama Traore has only lately been able to get fit – and not yet started (pending Luton away today). It feels a little land of misfit toys waiting for one to take their grip of one of the wide positions as we try to squeeze Willian for everything he’s worth. Would not be stunned if our biggest outlay of the summer is in the wide positions and perhaps the biggest percentage of the overall spending being there.

The fourth is a bit of a doozy. Perhaps midfield which has been another area of chop and change across the season with different skillsets across Tom Cairney, Harrison Reed and Sasa Lukic but none really quite displacing the other for more than a handful of games alongside Joao Palhinha. I’ve long worried about the lack of like-for-like replacements for Palhinha and Andreas as well, a bit bizarre we don’t have that same destroyer 6 or press heavy, creator 10.

Who will be the next academy debutant?

2023/24 saw the debuts of Luc De Fougerolles and Johnny Haynes Trophy winner Devan Tanton in the EFL Cup and the successful PL Cup win by the Fulham U21s provides hope there’s more on the conveyor belt. It’ll be Jay Stansfield trying to establish himself in the first team but contenders from Hayden Mullins’ terrific youth side will be hoping for a chance to get some minutes in and around the first team as Stansfield, Luke Harris, Martial Godo and more have done before in the cup. With others making the first team squad on game days across the season. Josh King is an early contender, already involved in first team training, the 17 year old looks set to be the next star ‘Made in Motspur,’ sadly his season was ended by injury but the likes of Callum Osmand (hat-trick hero from the cup final), Jon Esenga and Delano McCoy-Splatt will be hopeful of first team involvement during pre-season alongside the young returning loanees and others such as Matt Dibley-Dias and Sam Amissah.

A shout out too for Tom Olyott who has had a terrific U18 campaign and a ‘remember the name’ for Macauley Zepa, an extremely talented 15 year old who joined in the club in the winter from Arsenal and Seth Ridgeon, 16, who has tremendous potential. The club continues to do fantastic work at academy level, producing players that go on to have very good careers as footballers on top of those who directly contribute to the first team set up. There’s plenty of players I like the look of down the age groups and if demand is there, may do more youth work in the new season.

There we have it. 5 questions ahead of the new season, timed nicely pre-Luton and I’m sure we’ll have answers as we get through June and July and the beginning of the new season in August. As for immediate plans, I’ve been working for months on a personal transfer list to channel my inner Tony Khan of players across the world I like the look of and think would fit Fulham well. Get ready for positional breakdowns and depth heading into the summer transfer window.

To sign off like Tony Khan, “come on Fulham!”